Here is the two-week TSW water level forecast dated July 31:
The heavy draw-down continues. Get prepared.
(Reminder on water level forecast reliability:
Each week during the drawdown of the reservoir lakes the TSW provides CEWF with a table of actual and forecast water levels covering a two week period noted on the table.
The forecast is based on a mathematical model and several factors may cause the forecast to have considerable variance.
For example hot weather may increase evaporation from a lake causing the level to drop more than expected; on the other hard rain may raise the water level.
Water levels on headwater lakes, such as Kennisis, Drag and Jack lakes are easier to forecast than those on 'mid-stream' lakes such as Twelve Mile, Horseshoe and Gull lakes.
Caution is therefore required when interpreting the weekly forecast data for a particular lake. In general the forecast data have proven to be accurate to within a few inches for most lakes most of the time. They should be considered a useful guideline rather than an accurate projection of the future water level.