Here is the two-week TSW water level forecast dated July 31:
http://cewf.typepad.com/TSW_Forecast_July31_2012.gif
The heavy draw-down continues. Get prepared.
(Reminder on water level forecast reliability:
Each week during the drawdown of the reservoir lakes the TSW provides CEWF with a table of actual and forecast water levels covering a two week period noted on the table.
The forecast is based on a mathematical model and several factors may cause the forecast to have considerable variance.
For example hot weather may increase evaporation from a lake causing the level to drop more than expected; on the other hard rain may raise the water level.
Water levels on headwater lakes, such as Kennisis, Drag and Jack lakes are easier to forecast than those on 'mid-stream' lakes such as Twelve Mile, Horseshoe and Gull lakes.
Caution is therefore required when interpreting the weekly forecast data for a particular lake. In general the forecast data have proven to be accurate to within a few inches for most lakes most of the time. They should be considered a useful guideline rather than an accurate projection of the future water level.
15 more inches out of Miskwabi will make navigation between Long and Miskwabi very difficult. This will represent late September, early October levels.